Predicting future trends for web searching and
search engine marketing techniques.

As the web continues to grow at a tremendous rate, the question is, can the current search engines continue to cope with the size of the web, and if not, what are the alternatives?

Looking back at the huge developments in the past 10 years, it's hard to see where the web will be in the next 10, not to mention the next 5! The rapid growth in new websites, with thousands of new sites appearing every week, is putting a strain on the search engines as their technology tries to keep up with the growth. Estimates place the coverage of the web by search engines to be no more than 40-50% of total web pages.

Even more concerning is the way that the human-edited directories are falling behind their listing of new sites or updating dead links, whilst the economic justifications of employing more people to cope with the demand seem unfeasible. In fact, many of the major search tools are facing financial challenges in maintaining a viable service for web users and are having to look at new revenue streams, including charging websites for inclusion.

So what might the future hold? Here are some thoughts...

• There will be an increasing number of partnerships between the top search tools to help them increase their coverage of the web and retain users. The use of Google data to supplement Yahoo's directory listings, announced in the Summer 2000, has created a dominant search partnership in the short term.

• Acquisitions are also a likely trend, with Yahoo's acquisition of Inktomi and Overture (who had previously taken over AltaVista and FAST Search) creating a few key players in the search market, along with Google and MSN.

• New players will continue to enter the market, although successful ones may struggle to stay independent - such as the examples of Teoma (bought by Ask Jeeves) and Wisenut (taken over by Looksmart). Smaller search tools may try and replicate Google's formula (such as Wotbox) or try new techniques for displaying results and helping searchers (such as WebBrain and KwMap).

• Search engines are continually examining ways of indexing websites and providing highly relevant search results. The use of link popularity is one recent development that has introduced a level of website evaluation as it measures the quantity and 'quality' of hypertext links being directed at a website, thus assuming the importance or popularity of the site.

• Other future techniques may be to use software that can summarise the overall 'theme' or context of a website. Such 'agent' software may help, although the effectiveness of these tools still has to be proven as a general web search tool.

• More specific subject category search tools may be a medium term answer to try and segment the sheer size of the web into more manageable chunks - such as Business.com. However, such sites still need to ensure that they have the best coverage of the websites in their field.

• The concept of personal search engines being held on individual's computers is another popular forecast for the future. Using 'intelligent agents', the software will recognise a user's specific interests and actions and then search the web and retrieve relevant information to be held on a personal profile.

Whatever solution becomes the next mainstream search tool for the web, it is without doubt that the current search tools will have to change to remain effective. It is also clear that search engine marketing will remain an essential skill, adapting websites so that they will continue to be found by whatever method the search tools of the future will operate.

At the web search workshop we keep track of search engine developments to help business websites achieve the most effective exposure that is possible, both today and tomorrow. Please contact us now for more information.

Return to Materials introduction
The top search engines
The top web directories
How the top search tools work together
Options for paid search listings
UK search engines and directories
European search engines and directories